The Impact of Child Death on Birth Interval: A Hazard Model Analysis of Micro Data from Nepal1

This paper analyzes the effect of a child’s death on the subsequent birth interval. First, using the life table method compared the cumulative fertility of an additional birth by survival status of the index child. Then, a logistic formulation of the discrete-time hazard model was used to estimate the risk of the event (closing of the birth interval by subsequent birth) or the hazard of next birth in any given month, starting from nine months after the birth of the index child. The model was extended to allow for time dependent effects of child death. Sets of biological and socioeconomic variables that are likely to affect fertility were also included in the model. The survival status of the index child was found to have a substantial effect on the risk of closing birth interval. The effect of child death was strong initially but declined over time. The empirical results also showed some evidence for the existence of son preference in Nepalese society. JEL classification: J1