Research Article Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore

Abstract. Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calib-rated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably di erent urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the di erences in the initial con ® gura-tions and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discusses the role of GIS in the applications. The model has generated some long term predic-tions that appear useful for urban planning and are consistent with results from other models and observations of growth. Although the GIS was only loosely coupled with the model, the model’s provision of future urban patterns as data layers for GIS description and analysis is an important outcome of this type of calculation. 1