Learning, Incomplete Contracts and Export Dynamics: Theory and Evidence from French Firms

We consider a model where exporting requires to find a local partner in each market. Contracts are incomplete and exporters must learn the reliability of their partners through experience. In the model, export behavior is state-dependent due to matching frictions, although there are no sunk costs. Better legal institutions alleviate contracting frictions especially in sectors with large contracting problems. Thus, measures of legal quality have a greater positive impact on state-dependence and reduce hazard rates by more in those sectors that are more exposed to hold-up problems. Moreover, hazard rates decline with relation age, as unreliable partners are weeded out. We find strong evidence in favor of the model’s predictions when testing them with a French dataset that includes information on firm-level exports by destination country