RISK ANALYSIS ON THE BASIS OF JUDGMENTS SUPPLIED BY UNKNOWN EXPERTS

The development of a system requires fulfilling the available standards of reliability and safety. Due to possible complexity of the system, its parameters often are determined by experts whose judgements are usually imprecise and unreliable due to the limited precision of human assessments. Therefore, an approach for computing probabilities of expert judgments and for analysing the risk of decision about satisfying the parameters to standards of reliability and safety is proposed in the paper. A numerical example considering a microprocessor system of central train control illustrates the proposed approach