Analysis and Prediction of Real Network Traffic

Abstract — Short period prediction is a relevant task for many network applications. Tuning the parameters of the prediction model is very crucial to achieve accurate pre-diction. This work focuses on the design, the empirical evaluation and the analysis of the behavior of training-based models for predicting the throughput of a single link i.e. the incoming input rate in Megabit per second. In this work, a neurofuzzy model (α SNF), the AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and the Integrated AutoRegressive Moving Average (ARIMA) model are used for predicting. Via experimentation on real network traffic of different links, we study the effect of some parameters on the predic-tion performance in terms of error. These parameters are the amount of data needed to identify the model (i.e. training set), the number of last observations of the throughput (i.e. lag) needed as inputs for the model, the data granularity, variance and packet size distribution. We also investigate the use of the number of packets or sampled data as inputs for the prediction model. Experimental results show that training-based models, identified with small training set and using only one lag, can provide accurate prediction. We show that counts of packets and especially large packets can be used to efficiently predict the throughput. Index Terms — Traffic modeling, traffic measurements, traffic prediction, neurofuzzy models, ARMA model, self-similarity I