Trajectory prediction concepts for next generation air traffic management

“Understanding complex systems begins with an appreciation of uncertainty. ” – B. Russell Abstract: Current flight path predictions for climb and descent phases of flight have much larger path uncertainty than during cruise segments. The uncertainty errors in path prediction are a major concern for development of decision support tools such as arrival and departure managers for hub airport traffic flow planning and for medium term (10- 30 min) conflict detection in congested terminal and transition airspace. This paper outlines a trajectory synthesis methodology with emphasis on accuracy and integrity of trajectory predictions for decision support tools. The paper examines the specification of top level user requirements such as prediction accuracy, integrity, and availability, and the means by which such specifications could be realized by suitable technology development and integration of redundant source data. This paper extends the Required System Performance (RSP) concepts to trajectory synthesis, and uses Required Navigation Performance (RNP) as a direct analogy for development of trajectory prediction systems