Confucianism and Democratic Values in Three Chinese Societies*

Since the third wave of democratization reached East Asia in the 1990s, whether the new democracies of East Asia could consolidate their democracies has been an issue of interest. While proponents of Asian values pointed to the cultural specificity of Confucian political culture and argued that democratic values may not truly take root in East Asia, pro-ponents of modernization theory saw democratic values as the natural out-come of economic development. This study aims to ground this debate in an empirical study of Confucian and democratic value orientations in three Chinese societies: mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong. We develop indices based on survey research measuring Confucian and democratic values, and use these to analyze their distribution across the three Chinese societies. We also use them in conjunction with a multivariate analysis to uncover the causal structural relationship between Confucian values and democratic values. Our results show that Confucian values have a nega-tive influence on democratic values and vice versa, but also show tha