1A SIMULATION STUDY ON BIOENERGY POTENTIAL WITH A GLOBAL LAND USE AND ENERGY MODEL

Global bioenergy potential in the future is estimated using a multi-regional global land use and energy model (GLUE-11). The model consists of two sectors (a food sector and a forest sector) and describes land use competition among various uses for biomass applications such as paper, timber, food, feed, and energy. The model covers a wide range of biomass flow including food chains from feed to meat, paper recycling, and discharge of biomass residues. The model calculates the bioenergy potential from 1961 to 1990 based on the past records; and calculates that from 1990 to 2100 based on future biomass supply and demand scenarios. Through a set of simulations, the following results were obtained. (1) There will be a potential of energy crop production from surplus arable land in North America, Western Europe, Oceania, Latin America, and Former USSR and Eastern Europe. However, the potential of energy will be strongly affected by food demand parameters in the future, such as animal food demand per capita. (2) Ultimate energy potential of biomass residues will increase from 85 EJ/year to 258 EJ/year in 2100 globally. The potential will be robust to food demand. There will be large energy potentials of biomass residues in North America, Centrally Planned Asia, Latin America, and South Asia that will be major biomass consumers or major biomass exporters. Wood harvesting residues, wood scrap, cereal harvesting residues, and animal dung will be the biomass residues with large energy potentials. 1