ORIGINAL ARTICLE A Stochastic Population Dynamics Model for Aedes Aegypti: Formulation and Application to a City with Temperate Climate

Abstract Aedes aegypti is the main vector for dengue and urban yellow fever. It is extended around the world not only in the tropical regions but also beyond them, reaching temperate climates. Because of its importance as a vector of deadly dis-eases, the significance of its distribution in urban areas and the possibility of breed-ing in laboratory facilities, Aedes aegypti is one of the best-known mosquitoes. In this work the biology of Aedes aegypti is incorporated into the framework of a stochastic population dynamics model able to handle seasonal and total extinction as well as endemic situations. The model incorporates explicitly the dependence with temperature. The ecological parameters of the model are tuned to the present populations of Aedes aegypti in Buenos Aires city, which is at the border of the present day geographical distribution in South America. Temperature thresholds for the mosquito survival are computed as a function of average yearly tempera-ture and seasonal variation as well as breeding site availability. The stochastic anal-ysis suggests that the southern limit of Aedes aegypti distribution in South America is close to the 15◦C average yearly isotherm, which accounts for the historical and current distribution better than the traditional criterion of the winter (July) 10◦C isotherm