Ballot Order Effects in Referendum Elections

Are propositions listed at the top of the ballot more likely to pass than propositions listed at the bottom of the ballot? A large body of research has investigated the effect of ballot position in candidate elections, but there is little research on order effects in referendum elections. This paper offers evidence from California during 1958-2012 and Texas during 1986-2013 using research designs that address some challenges to causal inference. The main finding is that being listed at the top of the ballot has essentially no effect, positive or negative, on the approval rate. There is some evidence that ballot position matters conditional on initial voter beliefs, and that certain types of proposition fare better at the bottom than the top of the ballot. The paper develops a formal model explaining how ballot order effects might emerge, based on the idea of decision fatigue