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with the help of potential precursors identified by monitoring of variogram parameters. Using stochastic simulations of plausible term (days to weeks). These deterministically based Tree approach (e.g., Newhall and Hoblitt, 2002), re-cently implemented and applied to Vesuvius (Marzoc-ce of the use of Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Reruptive scenarios, these forecasts were expressed in terms of probability of occurrence. They constitute valuable input data as required by probabilistic risk assessments