BAYESIAN NETWORKS FOR RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF COMPLEX SYSTEMS

This paper presents an extension of Bayesian networks (BN) applied to reliability analysis. We developed a general methodology for modelling reliability of complex systems based on Bayesian networks. A reliability structure represented as a reliability block diagram is transformed to a Bayesian network representation, and with this, the reliability of the system can be obtained using probability propagation techniques. This allows for modelling complex systems, such as a bridge type, and dependencies between failures, which are difficult to obtain with conventional reliability analysis techniques. The relation between a BN and fault tree, and some advantages of BN for modeling system reliability are shown. We present some examples of the application of this methodology in solving difficult cases, which occur in reliability analysis of real systems, such as power plants