Oleg Anisimov and Svetlana Reneva Permafrost and Changing Climate: The Russian Perspective

The permafrost regions occupy about 25 % of the Northern Hemisphere’s terrestrial surface, and more than 60 % of that of Russia. Warming, thawing, and degradation of permafrost have been observed in many locations in recent decades and are likely to accelerate in the future as a result of climatic change. Changes of permafrost have important implications for natural sys-tems, humans, and the economy of the northern lands. Results from mathematical modeling indicate that by the mid-21st century, near-surface permafrost in the North-ern Hemisphere may shrink by 15%–30%, leading to complete thawing of the frozen ground in the upper few meters, while elsewhere the depth of seasonal thawing may increase on average by 15%–25%, and by 50 % or more in the northernmost locations. Such changes ma