The Chinese Silicon Photovoltaic Industry and Market: A Critical Review of Trends and Outlook

With manufacturing capacity ranking number 5 in the world in 2005, China is rapidly emerging as an important player in the global silicon solar cell and module market. Production capacity has been growing by more than 70 % per year over the last 7 years and future ambitious plans for the further expansion of the domestic production are likely to transform China in one of the largest (if not the largest) PV hubs in the world. However China’s ability to fulfil its goals is challenged in the short term by a global shortage of silicon and in the medium to long term by the ability of the government to stimulate innovation and to introduce the necessary incentives to grow the domestic market significantly given that 80 % of the production is currently exported to Germany and the USA. The article addresses these issues by reviewing the recent technological and market trends in the Chinese PV industry. It also explains the major domestic manufacturing strategies and indicates the possible future direction of photovoltaic power generation in China. The study is based on personal interviews conducted in China from May to July 2005 with the major players along the solar supply chain, as well as with representatives of the Chinese photovoltaic R&D sector and policy makers