Simulation of multiannual thermal profiles in deep Lake Geneva: A comparison of one-dimensional lake models

In this study, we report on the ability of four one-dimensional lake models to simulate the water temperature profiles of Lake Geneva, the largest water body in Western Europe, over a 10-yr period from 1996 to 2005, using lake models driven by a common atmospheric forcing. These lake models have already demonstrated their capability of reproducing the temperature distribution in smaller lakes and include one eddy-diffusive lake model, the Hostetler model; a Lagrangian model, the one-dimensional Dynamic Reservoir Simulation Model ‘‘DYRESM’’; a k–e turbulence model, ‘‘SIMSTRAT’’; and one based on the concept of self-similarity (assumed shape) of the temperature–depth curve, the Freshwater Lake model ‘‘FLake.’ ’ Only DYRESM and SIMSTRAT reproduce the variability of the water temperature profiles and seasonal thermocline satisfactorily. In layers in which thermocline variability is greatest, the temperature root mean square error is,2uC and 3uC (at the time of highest stratification) for these models, respectively. It is possible to apply certain one-dimensional lake models that simulate the behavior of temperature to investigate the potential future warming of the water column in Lake Geneva. Importantly, the metalimnion boundary is successfully modeled, which represents an encouraging step toward demonstrating the feasibility of coupling biogeochemical modules, such as, for example, a phytoplanktonic model, to assess the possible biological responses within lakes to climate change