The dynamical properties of forecasts corrected using Model Output Statistics (MOS) schemes are explored, with emphasis on the respective role of model and initial condition uncertainties. Analytical and numerical investigations of low-order systems displaying chaos indicate that MOS schemes are able to partly correct the impact of both initial and model errors on model forecasting. Nevertheless the am-plitude of the correction is much more sensitive to the presence of (state-dependent) model errors and if initial condition errors are much larger than model uncertain-ties, MOS schemes become less eective. Furthermore, the amplitude of the MOS correction depends strongly on the statistical properties of the phase space velocity dierence betw...
Reservoir management decisions are often based on simulation models and probabilistic approaches. Th...
The Acknowledgements section in the original version of this Article was incomplete. “This work was ...
The comparison performed in Berry et al. [Phys. Rev. E 91, 032915 (2015)] between the skill in predi...
In this paper we analyze the strong dip in the manufacturing industry seen at the end of 2008 and pr...
In their comment, Žagar and Szunyogh raised concerns about a recent study by Zhang et al. that exami...
The performance of two types of turbulence closures is compared in a 3-D numerical investigation of ...
The sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds is one of the weakest aspects of weather and climate m...
a b s t r a c t event progresses, more accurate forecasts with shorter lead times are required for w...
The spectral turbulence model of Lorenz, as modified for surface quasigeostrophic dynamics by Rotunn...
A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05775-z11Nsciescop...
Nonlinear dynamical models are frequently used to approximate and predict observed physical, biologi...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
Abstract: This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy wh...
In this paper we address the issue of statistical determination of forecast errors that arise from t...
Vecchi et al. question the skill of our initialized multiyear predictions of Atlantic Meridional Ove...
Reservoir management decisions are often based on simulation models and probabilistic approaches. Th...
The Acknowledgements section in the original version of this Article was incomplete. “This work was ...
The comparison performed in Berry et al. [Phys. Rev. E 91, 032915 (2015)] between the skill in predi...
In this paper we analyze the strong dip in the manufacturing industry seen at the end of 2008 and pr...
In their comment, Žagar and Szunyogh raised concerns about a recent study by Zhang et al. that exami...
The performance of two types of turbulence closures is compared in a 3-D numerical investigation of ...
The sub-grid-scale parameterization of clouds is one of the weakest aspects of weather and climate m...
a b s t r a c t event progresses, more accurate forecasts with shorter lead times are required for w...
The spectral turbulence model of Lorenz, as modified for surface quasigeostrophic dynamics by Rotunn...
A correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05775-z11Nsciescop...
Nonlinear dynamical models are frequently used to approximate and predict observed physical, biologi...
We revisit the concept of unpredictability to explore its implications for forecasting strategies in...
Abstract: This paper uses Monte Carlo techniques to assess the loss in terms of forecast accuracy wh...
In this paper we address the issue of statistical determination of forecast errors that arise from t...
Vecchi et al. question the skill of our initialized multiyear predictions of Atlantic Meridional Ove...
Reservoir management decisions are often based on simulation models and probabilistic approaches. Th...
The Acknowledgements section in the original version of this Article was incomplete. “This work was ...
The comparison performed in Berry et al. [Phys. Rev. E 91, 032915 (2015)] between the skill in predi...