Preface

launched a major effort to develop a microsimulation model of retirement income in the year 2020. It awarded two contracts to develop components of the model. The first contract was with The Urban Institute to project income from Social Security benefits, private pensions, private savings, and labor force participation after retirement and to study life cycle patterns of labor force participation and earnings. The results of that effort are documented in Toder, Uccello, O’Hare, Favreault, Ratcliffe, and Smith (1999). The second contract was with RAND to project demographic transitions, ensure that the distribution of outcomes is preserved in the projections, provide guidance on internal and external consistency, and develop a model of retirement income taxation. This document reports on the findings of this second component. Many people at RAND have contributed to the project. We especially acknowledge Thierry Cottet, Steven Haider and Jacob Klerman for their substantive contributions