Predicting gas production from future gas discoveries in the Netherlands: quantity, location, timing, quality

Abstract: Recent policy andmarket developments have raised the question not only as to howmuch gas remains to be discovered in the Netherlands but also where and when it will be produced and of what quality. These questions are addressed by compiling a ‘firm futures ’ database, estimating the ‘potential futures in proven plays’ and simulating the exploration process using the prospect portfolio. The firm futures are assessed using an integrated play evaluation method in a combined database/GIS environment. The database includes a prospect portfolio of firm futures, well data and maps. Volumetric estimates (low, mean and high success volumes) are assigned to the prospects. The risk of each prospect is estimated using play maps and the historical success ratio for that play. Using standard GIS functionality, the distance to production nodes, the gas quality, licence status and operator are determined for each prospect. The prospect portfolio is not static but dynamic. Using the creaming curve, fractal distribution analysis and the average POS (Possibility of Success) of the play, the gas volume and the amount of structures in the potential futures category are estimated. Again, GIS functionality is used to determine possible new locations and the gas quality of the prospects. The prospect portfolio is the input for a computer program that stochastically simulates the exploration process. Assumptions about future drilling efforts, economic screening scenarios and time delays from discovery to production are made explicit. The program simulates annual drilling campaigns. A number of prospects are drilled according to an assumed exploration efficiency and the POS is used to determine the result: a discovery or a dry well. The discovered volume is economically assessed and, if economic, transformed into a production and gas-quality profile