Demography and Development: Reassessing the Long-term Evidence

The effects of population growth on long-term economic development are of obvious importance. Previous studies, notably Kremer (1993), found that population growth spurs technological change. This paper reassesses existing studies, introduces previously untested predictions of Kremer’s model, and ex-amines alternative global and regional demographic data. It finds that exclud-ing modern data reverses existing time series conclusions. Causal inferences drawn from a natural experiment (the melting of the ice caps) are also reversed when appropriate controls are taken into account. An alternative framework based on technological leapfrogging is briefly discussed