IMPACT PRESSURE ESTIMATION OF AN AVALANCHE ON A STRUCTURE AS DEDUCED FROM INVERSE ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS

ABSTRACT. Avalanche impact pressure on a flat surface structure has been quantified by full scale experiments performed at the Lautaret avalanche test site (France). An inverse analysis method is developed to reconstruct the pressure applied on this macroscopic sensor from the deformations recorded during the impact. The deformation-to-pressure transfer function of the sensor is determined by analytical modelling and in-situ impact hammer tests. The transfer function is used to quantify the pressure of a 17 m/s avalanche artificially released on the structure. In order to access to the uncertainty of the reconstructed pressure, an advanced sensibility analysis is performed. Firstly, the uncertainties related to different parameters and processes involved are identified and estimated in the deformation-to-pressure transfer function through probability distributions. Then, the sensibility of the reconstructed pressure to these parameters is investigated to identify the most contributing parameters. Finally, the distribution of the uncertainty is estimated as a probability density of the total error/uncertainty in the pressure via a Monte Carlo simulation