Regional atmosphere model Extreme surge

nge form e su and surge climate statistics with reasonable accuracy (order of 10 cm). Model outputs were also com-ere eno erty in With a sure and strong winds. Rising time-mean sea levels will enhance the impact of surges. In the same report, global sea level is pro-jected to rise 18–59 cm towards the end of this century,excluding the scaled-up ice discharge, although some researchers argue that the range is underestimated and that the rise could reach 1.4 m, based on a proposed linear relationship between global surface temperatures and the rate of global mean sea level change over the timescales relevant to humans-decades to centuries (Rahm-variation on time scales of several decades. Flather and Smith (1998) found that under enhanced greenhouse gas conditions ex-treme wind speeds could increase by 10 % in the North Sea result-ing in a similar increase in the extreme storm surge. Lowe et al. (2001) employed a dynamical approach similar to Flather and Smith (1998) with some improvements, including longer time slices, higher temporal (3-h) and spatial resolutions (35 km) of the atmosphere forcing fields. Their results found a statistically sig-nificant increase in extreme storm surge along the UK coastline un-der assumed future climate conditions. Woth et al. (2005) applied an ensemble method for the surge study, using 6-h atmospheri