This paper is part of a project, still in its infancy, on historical changes in war termination. Here, I document an empirical trend: a marked increase over time in the number of wars ending in a draw, occurring for interstate wars after WWII, and for civil wars after the end of the Cold War. For war to end in a draw, two conditions must hold: neither side is able to defeat the other outright, and the belligerents can reach a compromise settlement, allowing them to stop fighting rather than continuing the war in the hope of eventual victory. Using this framework, I outline and test a number of hypotheses derived from existing literature on war outcomes and duration. I also explore the possibility that the increase in the number of draws is ...
We provide strong evidence of a post-1950 decline in conventional war. A survey of the qualitative l...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...
Why do some wars end quickly while others endure for years? What separates the conflicts in which mi...
Once wars begin, how and when do they end? While wars can and do end in the military defeat of one ...
The new theories of endogenous war termination generally predict that initiators would tend to do ba...
Civil wars typically have been terminated by a variety of means, including military victories, negot...
For the past 70 years, there has been a downward trend in the size of wars, but the idea of an endur...
This paper sits at the intersection of the rivalry, war duration, and bargaining literatures, sugges...
Does it matter whether a civil war is fought as a conventional, irregular, or symmetric non-conventi...
While the factors affecting the initiation of war have been extensively studied, the factors that de...
Why do wars last as long as they do? Why do some rage for years, while others last only a few months...
In theories that model war as a bargaining problem, fighting during war plays a key role in leading ...
According to a leading rationalist explanation, war can break out when a large, rapid shift of power...
If war results from disagreement about relative strength, then it ends when opponents learn enoughab...
We provide strong evidence of a post-1950 decline in conventional war. A survey of the qualitative l...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...
Why do some wars end quickly while others endure for years? What separates the conflicts in which mi...
Once wars begin, how and when do they end? While wars can and do end in the military defeat of one ...
The new theories of endogenous war termination generally predict that initiators would tend to do ba...
Civil wars typically have been terminated by a variety of means, including military victories, negot...
For the past 70 years, there has been a downward trend in the size of wars, but the idea of an endur...
This paper sits at the intersection of the rivalry, war duration, and bargaining literatures, sugges...
Does it matter whether a civil war is fought as a conventional, irregular, or symmetric non-conventi...
While the factors affecting the initiation of war have been extensively studied, the factors that de...
Why do wars last as long as they do? Why do some rage for years, while others last only a few months...
In theories that model war as a bargaining problem, fighting during war plays a key role in leading ...
According to a leading rationalist explanation, war can break out when a large, rapid shift of power...
If war results from disagreement about relative strength, then it ends when opponents learn enoughab...
We provide strong evidence of a post-1950 decline in conventional war. A survey of the qualitative l...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...
Interstate wars and animal contests both involve disputed resources, restraint and giving up decisio...