Ensemble–Based Data Assimilation for Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models

Abstract. The task of providing an optimal analysis of the state of the atmosphere requires the development of dynamic data-driven systems (d3as) that efficiently integrate the observational data and the models. In this paper we discuss fundamental aspects of nonlinear ensemble data assimilation applied to atmospheric chemical transport models. We for-mulate autoregressive models for the background errors and show how these models are capable of capturing flow dependent correlations. To-tal energy singular vectors describe the directions of maximum errors growth and are used to initialize the ensembles. We highlight the chal-lenges encountered in the computation of singular vectors in the presence of stiff chemistry and propose solutions to overcome them. Results for a large scale simulation of air pollution in East Asia illustrate the poten-tial of nonlinear ensemble techniques to assimilate chemical observations