0 1998 Southern Agricultural Economics Association Chinese Consumer Demand for Animal Products and Implications for U.S. Pork and Poultry Exports

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China’s import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China’s demand for animal products will con-tinue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China’s import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small. Key Words: Almost Ideal Demand System, China, consumer demand, demand elasticity, food demand, partial equilibrium model, two-stage budgeting, U.S. meat export. China’s rapid economic growth and gradual transition toward a market economy have brought about significant changes in its food consumption patterns and trade behavior. With increased income and improved market acces-sibility, Chinese consumers, especially those in urban areas, are shifting their food con-sumption from grains to meats and other high-value food products (Wang, Jensen, and John-son). Between 1984 and 1996, China’s per capita grain consumption declined from 142 kg to 94 kg in urban areas, and from 267 kg to 256 kg in rural areas, whereas the per capita Wang is an assistant professor and Halbrendt is a pro-fessor, both in the Department of Community Devel