Title: Coastal Hazards and Community Exposure in a Changing Climate: The Development of Probabilistic Coastal Change Hazard Zones.

Documented trends in rising sea levels, storminess, and extreme wave heights have the potential to increase the frequency and magnitude of coastal change hazards, increasing risks to coastal infrastructure and environmental resources. Coastal planners and decision makers need information about the impacts of future hazards in order to apply mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, making quantitative predictions of beach and dune erosion is complicated by uncertainties surrounding the drivers and impacts of climate change as well as our understanding of climate controls on coastal change hazards. Furthermore, these changes are occurring in a dynamic environment where beach geomorphology evolves over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Here a new, probabilistic approach for quantifying future coastal change hazards that incorporates the uncertainty associated with both climate change and morphological variability is presented. First, a suite of synthetic time series of total water levels (TWLs) through 2100 are produced by applying various climate change scenarios, composed of projections of sea-level rise, wave climate, and the frequency of major El Niños, to historical datasets o